FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Chelsea 2–2 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Chelsea to win at 80%. Bawler had Chelsea at 80%, the draw at 13% and Hull City at 7%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
80%
Draw
13%
Result
Hull City win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.9 – 0.8
Total 3.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Chelsea to win
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Chelsea's home win forecast rests on a 2.13 expected-goals advantage, with strikers Palmer and Fernández commanding 41% of the team's attacking threat against Hull's 0.77 xG."