FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Cook Islands 1–3 TahitiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Cook Islands
1–3
Tahiti win
Tahiti

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Cook Islands or draw at 73%. Bawler had Cook Islands at 47%, the draw at 27% and Tahiti at 27%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Cook Islands win
47%
Draw
27%
Tahiti win
27%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Cook Islands or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 75% forecast confidence, backed by Cook Islands' 0.44 expected-goal advantage and a combined xG total of 2.70 that points to an open, attacking contest."

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