FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 27 September 2026

CP Talayuela 1–2 Sporting de AlcázarMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

CP Talayuela
1–2
Sporting de Alcázar win
Sporting de Alcázar

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was CP Talayuela or draw at 70%. Bawler had CP Talayuela at 45%, the draw at 26% and Sporting de Alcázar at 30%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

CP Talayuela win
45%
Draw
26%
Sporting de Alcázar win
30%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 80% confidence because combined expected goals of 2.97 and Talayuela's 0.33 xG edge suggest both sides will create genuine chances in open play."

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