FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
CSKA Sofia 0–2 OFI CreteMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was CSKA Sofia or draw at 72%. Bawler had CSKA Sofia at 46%, the draw at 26% and OFI Crete at 28%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
CSKA Sofia win
46%
Draw
26%
OFI Crete win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
CSKA Sofia or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, backed by CSKA Sofia's 0.40 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.92 suggesting an open, attacking contest."