FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Deportivo 1–1 Real BetisMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 65%. Bawler had Deportivo at 35%, the draw at 26% and Real Betis at 39%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
35%
Draw
26%
Result
Real Betis win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% with both sides combining for 2.76 expected goals, suggesting Deportivo's home setup will generate enough attacking threat to overcome Real Betis' marginal 11-point edge in win probability."