FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Erzurum BB 1–0 KonyasporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Erzurum BB or draw at 71%. Bawler had Erzurum BB at 45%, the draw at 26% and Konyaspor at 29%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Erzurum BB win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
Konyaspor win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, backed by Erzurum BB's 0.35 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.94 that tilts toward an open contest."