FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

F.C. København 4–1 FC Inter TurkuMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

F.C. København
4–1
F.C. København win
FC Inter Turku

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was F.C. København to win at 78%. Bawler had F.C. København at 78%, the draw at 14% and FC Inter Turku at 8%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

F.C. København win
78%
Result
Draw
14%
FC Inter Turku win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.9 – 0.9
Total 3.7
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
F.C. København to win
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"F.C. København's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, backed by a dominant 1.99 xG advantage that leaves Turku's striker Lautaro Martínez starved of clear-cut chances."

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