FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
FC Hradec Králové 1–2 PanathinaikosMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Panathinaikos or draw at 67%. Bawler had FC Hradec Králové at 33%, the draw at 28% and Panathinaikos at 40%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Hradec Králové win
33%
Draw
28%
Panathinaikos win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate similar shot quality (1.26 vs 1.41 xG), creating a combined 2.67 expected total that favors a multi-goal affair."