FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
FC Porto 0–2 Manchester CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City or draw at 69%. Bawler had FC Porto at 31%, the draw at 27% and Manchester City at 42%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
31%
Draw
27%
Manchester City win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 76%, with Manchester City's 1.51 xG and Haaland generating 39% of their shot quality enough to pierce Porto's 1.25 xG defense at home."