FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam 5–0 FC UtrechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw at 81%. Bawler had Feyenoord Rotterdam at 59%, the draw at 22% and FC Utrecht at 19%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
59%
Result
Draw
22%
FC Utrecht win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.3
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% forecast confidence, anchored by Feyenoord's 1.99 xG and a 0.87 xG advantage that tilts the match decisively toward an open game."