FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Galatasaray 1–0 KocaelisporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Galatasaray to win at 67%. Bawler had Galatasaray at 67%, the draw at 21% and Kocaelispor at 12%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
67%
Result
Draw
21%
Kocaelispor win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Galatasaray to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Galatasaray's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 67%, built on a decisive 1.31 expected-goals advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat against a limited Kocaelispor side."