FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Georgia 0–1 Northern IrelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Georgia
0–1
Northern Ireland win
Northern Ireland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Northern Ireland or draw at 67%. Bawler had Georgia at 33%, the draw at 27% and Northern Ireland at 41%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Georgia win
33%
Draw
27%
Northern Ireland win
41%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, grounded in combined xG of 2.86 and Northern Ireland's slight edge in win probability (39% vs 34%) that suggests attacking intent from both sides."

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