FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 1–1 FC GroningenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Groningen or draw at 66%. Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 34%, the draw at 24% and FC Groningen at 42%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Go Ahead Eagles win
34%
Draw
24%
Result
FC Groningen win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% confidence as both sides project combined xG of 3.28, with Groningen's 1.74 attacking output suggesting Eagles' defence will face sustained pressure at home."