FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 07 September 2026
Goztepe 2–4 Gaziantep FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Goztepe or draw at 80%. Bawler had Goztepe at 57%, the draw at 23% and Gaziantep FK at 20%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
57%
Draw
23%
Gaziantep FK win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 80% confidence because Goztepe's 1.93 expected goals nearly doubles Gaziantep FK's 1.07, suggesting a match built for multiple goals."