FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Hapoel Be'er 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Dinamo Zagreb or draw at 64%. Bawler had Hapoel Be'er at 36%, the draw at 26% and Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hapoel Be'er win
36%
Draw
26%
Result
Dinamo Zagreb win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Hapoel Be'er or draw
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hapoel Be'er's home advantage tilts the Hapoel Be'er or draw forecast to 61% despite Zagreb's marginal xG edge (1.53 vs 1.47), as the three-point gap in win probability favors the host avoiding defeat."