FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Hungary 0–1 UkraineMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Hungary
0–1
Ukraine win
Ukraine

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Hungary or draw at 75%. Bawler had Hungary at 51%, the draw at 24% and Ukraine at 25%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Hungary win
51%
Draw
24%
Ukraine win
25%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
Hungary to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 81% confidence because Hungary's 1.89 xG vastly outpaces Ukraine's 1.17, creating a 0.71 expected-goal advantage that typically yields multiple chances."

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