FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

Inter D'Escaldes 0–0 Drita GjilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Drita Gjilan to win at 61%. Bawler had Inter D'Escaldes at 19%, the draw at 19% and Drita Gjilan at 61%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Inter D'Escaldes win
19%
Draw
19%
Result
Drita Gjilan win
61%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 2.5
Total 3.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Drita Gjilan to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Drita Gjilan's away win is the high-confidence call at 61% probability, built on a dominant 1.12 xG advantage and Lautaro Martínez's presence unable to close the gap for the hosts."

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