FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Istanbul Basaksehir 1–1 KasimpasaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Istanbul Basaksehir to win at 62%. Bawler had Istanbul Basaksehir at 62%, the draw at 23% and Kasimpasa at 15%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Istanbul Basaksehir win
62%
Draw
23%
Result
Kasimpasa win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Istanbul Basaksehir to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.