FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Japan 3–1 UruguayMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Japan
3–1
Japan win
Uruguay

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Japan to win at 60%. Bawler had Japan at 60%, the draw at 26% and Uruguay at 14%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Japan win
60%
Result
Draw
26%
Uruguay win
14%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 0.7
Total 2.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Japan to win
Pre-match: 60%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Japan's dominant expected-goals advantage of 0.96 underpins the Japan or draw forecast, with the hosts' 1.63 xG threatening to deny Uruguay any victory in a home friendly."

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