FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026

Kasimpasa 2–2 Amed SFKMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Amed SFK or draw at 66%. Bawler had Kasimpasa at 34%, the draw at 28% and Amed SFK at 38%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kasimpasa win
34%
Draw
28%
Result
Amed SFK win
38%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% as both sides combine for 2.64 expected goals, with Amed's marginal 1.37 xG edge offsetting Kasimpasa's home advantage in a fixture the model sees as genuinely competitive."

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