FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Kosovo 1–0 Republic of IrelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Kosovo or draw at 74%. Bawler had Kosovo at 48%, the draw at 26% and Republic of Ireland at 26%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Kosovo win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Republic of Ireland win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (78%), anchored by Kosovo's 0.49 xG advantage and 48% win probability that should translate to an open, attacking contest."

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