FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
KVC Westerlo 4–2 Standard LiegeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was KVC Westerlo or draw at 68%. Bawler had KVC Westerlo at 43%, the draw at 25% and Standard Liege at 32%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
KVC Westerlo win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
Standard Liege win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% with both sides generating 3.17 combined xG, giving Westerlo's 1.71 shot-creation edge at home enough margin to push a low-scoring fixture into multi-goal territory."