FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Leyton Orient 1–3 Bradford CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026

Leyton Orient
1–3
Bradford City win
Bradford City

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Bradford City or draw at 65%. Bawler had Leyton Orient at 35%, the draw at 29% and Bradford City at 37%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Leyton Orient win
35%
Draw
29%
Bradford City win
37%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.0
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 71% because combined expected goals of 2.47 and a narrow xG gap (0.05) signal both sides will create genuine chances in an evenly matched contest."

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