FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Maccabi Tel-Aviv 1–1 FC LuganoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Maccabi Tel-Aviv or draw at 64%. Bawler had Maccabi Tel-Aviv at 37%, the draw at 26% and FC Lugano at 36%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Maccabi Tel-Aviv win
37%
Draw
26%
Result
FC Lugano win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as both sides carry nearly identical xG (1.47 vs 1.45), positioning this tie for a multi-goal affair despite evenly split win probabilities."