FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Manchester United 0–1 Manchester CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 68%. Bawler had Manchester United at 43%, the draw at 25% and Manchester City at 32%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester United win
43%
Draw
25%
Manchester City win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester United or draw
Pre-match: 68%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Manchester United's 42% win probability and narrow 0.23 xG advantage projects a Manchester United or draw forecast at 68%, with Bruno Fernandes' creative role essential to converting United's slight edge over City's Haaland-dependent attack."