FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Maracena 1–1 Tavernes de la ValldignaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Maracena or draw at 70%. Bawler had Maracena at 45%, the draw at 26% and Tavernes de la Valldigna at 30%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Maracena win
45%
Draw
26%
Result
Tavernes de la Valldigna win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, backed by Maracena's 1.65 xG advantage and a combined 2.97 expected-goal total that suggests multiple goals are highly probable."

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