FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Minnesota United FC 1–2 FC DallasMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 43%, the draw at 26% and FC Dallas at 31%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
43%
Draw
26%
FC Dallas win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 78%, underpinned by Minnesota's 1.58 xG advantage and a narrow overall xG gap of 0.29 that suggests both sides will create meaningful chances."