FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 05 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw at 63%. Bawler had NEC Nijmegen at 37%, the draw at 24% and Feyenoord Rotterdam at 39%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
NEC Nijmegen win
37%
Draw
24%
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.7
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, built on Feyenoord's 1.67 xG and NEC's 1.63 creating a combined 3.30-xG affair where both sides project genuine attacking threat."