FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Sunday, 13 September 2026

Neom SC 4–2 Al FatehMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026

Neom SC
4–2
Neom SC win
Al Fateh

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Neom SC or draw at 74%. Bawler had Neom SC at 48%, the draw at 25% and Al Fateh at 26%. The match finished 4–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Neom SC win
48%
Result
Draw
25%
Al Fateh win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Neom SC or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Neom SC's 0.50 xG advantage and 48% win probability underpin a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 79%, suggesting both sides will likely find the net despite Al Fateh's defensive limitations."

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