FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Neom SC 3–0 Al KhaleejMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026

Neom SC
3–0
Neom SC win
Al Khaleej

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Neom SC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Neom SC at 46%, the draw at 26% and Al Khaleej at 28%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Neom SC win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Al Khaleej win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Neom SC's 0.41 expected-goals advantage at home underpins a 77% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, suggesting both sides will create enough to breach the scoresheet."

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