FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 05 September 2026
New York City FC 0–0 Nashville SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was New York City FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had New York City FC at 40%, the draw at 27% and Nashville SC at 34%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
New York City FC win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
Nashville SC win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% as both sides combine for 2.80 xG, with Martínez's 24% of City's attack meeting Mukhtar's creative 26% of Nashville's threat in a fixture the model rates nearly even."