FT · England: Championship · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Norwich City 2–1 Birmingham CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Norwich City
2–1
Norwich City win
Birmingham City

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 69%. Bawler had Norwich City at 41%, the draw at 27% and Birmingham City at 31%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Norwich City win
41%
Result
Draw
27%
Birmingham City win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Norwich's season-ending malaise at home against a Birmingham side with nothing to chase makes the draw-or-away-win forecast (Birmingham City or draw at 60%) the model's call, despite Norwich's marginal xG edge of 1.39 to 1.25."

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