FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

PAOK 1–1 SK BrannMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026

PAOK
1–1
Draw
SK Brann

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was PAOK or draw at 74%. Bawler had PAOK at 48%, the draw at 25% and SK Brann at 26%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

PAOK win
48%
Draw
25%
Result
SK Brann win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
PAOK or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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