FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Raków Czestochowa 2–3 Hajduk SplitMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Raków Czestochowa or draw at 69%. Bawler had Raków Czestochowa at 44%, the draw at 25% and Hajduk Split at 31%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Raków Czestochowa win
44%
Draw
25%
Hajduk Split win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% confidence, underpinned by a combined xG of 3.06 and Raków's 1.68 expected output at home."