FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 04 September 2026
Real Betis 1–0 Real MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid or draw at 67%. Bawler had Real Betis at 33%, the draw at 26% and Real Madrid at 41%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
33%
Result
Draw
26%
Real Madrid win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Real Madrid's title pursuit clashes with Betis's European ambition, yet the xG gap narrows to just 0.19, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's high-confidence call at 82% with Vinícius and Isco both driving creative output."