FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Real Madrid 2–1 InternazionaleMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid or draw at 71%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 48%, the draw at 23% and Internazionale at 29%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
48%
Result
Draw
23%
Internazionale win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Madrid or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 85% because Real Madrid's 1.94 xG and Internazionale's 1.47 xG combine for relentless attacking threat across the pitch."