FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Riga FC 2–1 KI KlaksvikMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Riga FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Riga FC at 51%, the draw at 26% and KI Klaksvik at 23%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Riga FC win
51%
Result
Draw
26%
KI Klaksvik win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Riga FC or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Riga's Riga FC or draw forecast sits at 77% confidence, anchored by a decisive 0.62 xG advantage that suggests the hosts will either win or draw against a Klaksvik side generating just 1.03 expected goals."