FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Sabah FK 5–2 Hapoel Be'erMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sabah FK or draw at 67%. Bawler had Sabah FK at 42%, the draw at 25% and Hapoel Be'er at 33%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sabah FK win
42%
Result
Draw
25%
Hapoel Be'er win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.