FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 12 September 2026

SC Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026

SC Cambuur
3–0
SC Cambuur win
NEC Nijmegen

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was NEC Nijmegen to win at 66%. Bawler had SC Cambuur at 15%, the draw at 19% and NEC Nijmegen at 66%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

SC Cambuur win
15%
Result
Draw
19%
NEC Nijmegen win
66%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.5
Total 3.6
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
NEC Nijmegen to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"NEC Nijmegen's away win is the high-confidence forecast, backed by a commanding 1.34 xG advantage and 66% win probability against a Cambuur side managing just 1.14 expected goals."

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