FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Serbia 1–2 GreeceMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Serbia
1–2
Greece win
Greece

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Greece or draw at 71%. Bawler had Serbia at 29%, the draw at 25% and Greece at 45%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Serbia win
29%
Draw
25%
Greece win
45%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Greece or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals emerges as the high-confidence forecast at 81%, anchored by Greece's 1.70 xG advantage and Serbia's relative defensive vulnerability at home."

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