FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Shamrock Rovers 1–1 KuPS KuopioMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Shamrock Rovers or draw at 69%. Bawler had Shamrock Rovers at 41%, the draw at 28% and KuPS Kuopio at 31%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Shamrock Rovers win
41%
Draw
28%
Result
KuPS Kuopio win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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