FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Sheffield United 1–3 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sheffield United or draw at 72%. Bawler had Sheffield United at 47%, the draw at 25% and Norwich City at 28%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sheffield United win
47%
Draw
25%
Norwich City win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sheffield United or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sheffield United's superior shot quality (1.73 xG to 1.24) gives the hosts the edge at home, making Sheffield United or draw a 73% forecast against a Norwich side with nothing to play for."