FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Sheffield United 0–1 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw at 67%. Bawler had Sheffield United at 33%, the draw at 27% and Wolverhampton Wanderers at 39%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sheffield United win
33%
Draw
27%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% because combined xG reaches 2.73, with Wolverhampton's Adam Armstrong leading the striker load at 21% of team output."