FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Sint-Truidense 4–0 RAAL La LouvièreMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sint-Truidense or draw at 81%. Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 58%, the draw at 24% and RAAL La Louvière at 19%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
58%
Result
Draw
24%
RAAL La Louvière win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sint-Truidense or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sint-Truidense's 0.90 expected-goals advantage and 58% win probability make the Sint-Truidense or draw forecast (81% confidence) the model's leading call for home advantage or stalemate."