FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
St. Gallen 2–3 FC NordsjællandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was St. Gallen or draw at 69%. Bawler had St. Gallen at 46%, the draw at 23% and FC Nordsjælland at 31%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Gallen win
46%
Draw
23%
FC Nordsjælland win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.6
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
St. Gallen or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 87%, driven by St. Gallen's 0.38 xG advantage and combined attacking potential of 3.57 expected goals between both sides."