FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Standard Liege 1–0 AntwerpMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Standard Liege or draw at 66%. Bawler had Standard Liege at 39%, the draw at 26% and Antwerp at 34%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Standard Liege win
39%
Result
Draw
26%
Antwerp win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate similar attacking threat (Standard 1.48 xG, Antwerp 1.37), leaving neither defense commanding enough to suppress a multi-goal result."