FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 26 September 2026

UB Lebrijana 5–0 Ceuta 6 de JunioMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

UB Lebrijana
5–0
UB Lebrijana win
Ceuta 6 de Junio

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was UB Lebrijana or draw at 70%. Bawler had UB Lebrijana at 45%, the draw at 26% and Ceuta 6 de Junio at 30%. The match finished 5–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

UB Lebrijana win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
Ceuta 6 de Junio win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, anchored by a combined 2.97 expected goals that tilts toward UB Lebrijana's 1.65 xG advantage at home."

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