FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Union St.-Gilloise 5–0 Lommel SKMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Union St.-Gilloise
5–0
Union St.-Gilloise win
Lommel SK

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Union St.-Gilloise to win at 65%. Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 65%, the draw at 22% and Lommel SK at 13%. The match finished 5–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Union St.-Gilloise win
65%
Result
Draw
22%
Lommel SK win
13%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.8
Total 2.7
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.3 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Union St.-Gilloise to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Union St.-Gilloise's home advantage combines with a decisive 1.19 xG edge to make their 65% win probability the model's high-confidence call against a Lommel side generating just 0.76 expected goals."

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