FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

Viktoria Plzen 5–1 Red Star BelgradeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

Viktoria Plzen
5–1
Viktoria Plzen win
Red Star Belgrade

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Viktoria Plzen or draw at 70%. Bawler had Viktoria Plzen at 42%, the draw at 28% and Red Star Belgrade at 30%. The match finished 5–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Viktoria Plzen win
42%
Result
Draw
28%
Red Star Belgrade win
30%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Plzen's 1.41 expected goals edge and 12-point win-probability advantage drive a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 72%, signaling both sides will find the net in a close Europa League qualifier."

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