FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Waasland-Beveren 2–0 Sint-TruidenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sint-Truidense or draw at 72%. Bawler had Waasland-Beveren at 28%, the draw at 26% and Sint-Truidense at 47%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Waasland-Beveren win
28%
Result
Draw
26%
Sint-Truidense win
47%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Sint-Truidense or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sint-Truidense's 0.43 xG advantage and 47% win probability set up Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast at 79%, with the away side expected to dictate a more open contest than Waasland-Beveren can contain."